PREDICT: Nikola Jokic’s biggest MVP rival will not win the award this year

Starting this season, players must play at least 65 games to be eligible for awards like MVP and All-NBA teams.

The NBA announced a new player participation policy ahead of the 2023-24 season, to lower load management and “reinforce that we’re an 82-game league,” according to Commissioner Adam Silver. “If you’re a healthy player in this league, the expectation is that you’re going to play.”

The most noticeable part of the new rules is that to be eligible for major honours, players must play in at least 65 games. For a game to count, a player must have registered for at least 20 minutes. The honours include:

As the season nears its halfway point, here’s a look at which stars are at risk of missing too many games or have already been eliminated from contention. 

Kyrie Irving, Mavericks: Ineligible.NBA awards eligibility tracker: Joel Embiid's MVP hopes end as surgery  required for torn meniscus, per reports - CBSSports.com

Irving has performed admirably for the Mavericks, but with the league’s finest young guards these days, making the All-NBA team has always been a difficult task. In any scenario, he is now ineligible. A freak foot injury held him out for nearly all of December, and with a subsequent thumb issue, he’s now missed too many games. 

Bradley Beal, Suns: Ineligible.

Beal’s first season in the desert has been a roller coaster of injuries. A back ailment that occurred during training camp delayed him from making his debut until November when he was forced to sit out for another three weeks. When he returned from that issue, he damaged his ankle and was declared out for another two weeks. Overall, he has already well beyond the maximum amount of games he might miss. 

Lamelo Ball, Hornets: Ineligible.

The youngest Ball sibling got off to a great start this season before sustaining another ankle injury in late November. He eventually returned, but not before missing 20 games over nearly two months. As a result, he has missed too many games to be considered for playoff awards. 

Ja Morant, Grizzlies: Ineligible.

Morant recently underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, although he was ineligible for awards before the season even began. That, of course, was because the league suspended him for the first 25 games of the season after several incidents of brandishing a pistol on social media. Injuries and off-court issues kept him off the ballots last season as well, so the 2022 Most Improved Player and All-NBA Second Teamer will go two seasons without receiving any honours. 

Jimmy Butler, Heat: Missed 15 of 17 games.Sixers' Joel Embiid outplayed Nikola Jokic, but NBA MVP might be his only  trophy

Butler, who maintains he doesn’t start “playing for real” until after the All-Star break, has been named to the All-NBA team five times, including three of the last four seasons. His chances of making the cut this time around are limited, considering he has already missed 15 games. To that end, Butler has only played 65 games four times in his career.  

Joel Embiid, Sixers: Missed 14 of 17 games

The reigning MVP will not play back-to-back. Embiid was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee earlier this month and will have surgery to repair it, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. While no official timeline has been given, the treatment will keep Embiid out of action for an extended length of time, effectively ending his MVP and All-NBA ambitions. 

Kristaps Porzingis, Celtics: Missed 14 of 17 games.

The Celtics are once again a top defensive club, thanks in large part to the Latvian big man, who landed in a blockbuster deal this summer. However, given his 14-game absence and extensive injury history, it appears unlikely that he would be considered for All-Defensive. The team has been restricting him from playing both halves of back-to-backs recently, and they plan to be cautious with his health down the stretch. 

Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers: Missed 13 of 17 games.

The NBA’s assist leader has missed 13 games this season due to a hamstring strain sustained on January 8 against the Celtics. Prior to his return to the lineup, also against the Celtics, he referred to the league’s 65-game regulation as “stupid.” The stipulation might have a significant financial impact on Haliburton, as the value of the max agreement he signed last summer is dependent on whether he makes the All-NBA squad. 

Bam Adebayo, Heat: Missed 10 of 17 games.

The Heat have been severely injured this season, with star centre Bam Adebayo near the top of the list for missing games. A hip ailment sidelined him for more than two weeks at the start of December, and he has now missed ten games. While his defensive effect is apparent, his chances of making a fifth straight All-Defensive team will be dependent on his ability to remain on the court in the second half of the season. 

Devin Booker, Suns: Missed 9/17 games.Joel Embiid injury: Possible return date and updates after 76ers star's  latest knee surgery - SBNation.com

Booker had a difficult start this season, missing eight of the Suns’ first ten games due to a variety of leg problems; he injured his foot, ankle, and calf in the course of a few weeks. Since then, he’s returned to elite form, averaging a career-high in assists and missing only one game. However, due to his early absences, he can only miss eight more games to remain in the All-NBA conversation. 

Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers: Missed 9/17 games.Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid: Who deserves the MVP? | Marca

Mitchell made his first All-NBA selection last season, making the Second Team after helping the Cavaliers reach the playoffs for the first time this century without LeBron James. If he wants to remain in that debate, he’ll need to stay healthy in the second half of the season. He has already missed nine games due to a hamstring injury and a four-day illness that kept him in bed. 

Kevin Durant, Suns: Missed 7 of 17 games

The veteran forward has been the healthiest of the Suns’ “Big Three,” which is saying something. He’s in the midst of another outstanding scoring season, but a couple minor injuries have held him out of seven games thus far. Given his health issues in recent seasons (he hasn’t played 65 games since 2019, prior to his Achilles tendon tear), you have to wonder if he can hold up in the second half.