The Dallas Mavericks are hoping to steal a game on the road from the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder, handing them their first postseason loss, but the odds are stacked against them.

NBA guru Mark Medina believes they don’t stand a chance of winning a seven-game series, especially with franchise star Luka Dončić not regularly performing to MVP-type levels as he did throughout the regular season.

Hoping To Beat the Odds and Level the Series

Dallas enter game two as 5.5 point underdogs

The Mavericks were 3.5 point underdogs entering game one of their Western Conference semi-final match-up with the Thunder, but the game did not transpire remotely close in that way, with Dallas suffering a 22-point blowout, which now sees Oklahoma City heading into game two as 5.5 point favorites.

This series features two MVP finalists, one on each team, with runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Dončić, who finished in third place. Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets won his third MVP award, beating out the other two contenders.

hitting seven three-pointers. … See more

2023-24 Kia NBA MVP – Voting Breakdown

Name

1st Place Votes

2nd Place Votes

3rd Place Votes

Nikola Jokić

79

18

2

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

15

40

40

Luka Dončić

4

36

50

But, in game one, it was all about the Thunder’s young core, with Gilgeous-Alexander nearly achieving a triple-double with 29 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists, Rookie of the Year runner-up Chet Holmgren scoring 19 points and grabbing seven rebounds, and the quietly impressive Jalen Williams going off for 18 points.

The Mavericks’ 2016 NBA champion Kyrie Irving and Dončić struggled with illness and a knee sprain during the playoffs, scoring only 39 points compared to their 56.3 point average in their six-game series win over the L.A. Clippers. Irving expressed disappointment with his team’s lack of effort on the court.

To regain momentum and tie the series, Dallas may need to rely more on Irving, who had a strong first round against the Clippers. Dončić’s injury may further limit his productivity.

Thunderstorms Are ‘Really Hard To Stop’

Medina predicts that the Thunder will win the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals, citing Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort as key players for the Mavericks to overcome. However, he believes the Mavs can keep the series competitive with improved shooting from Dončić and Irving.

“The Thunder will win.” But I believe Dallas can still recover. Luka Dončić has been suffering with a sprained right knee. I believe he’ll shoot better than 6-for-19 from the field. I expect Kyrie Irving to improve his shooting as well. But it is really difficult to stop this Thunder team.

I don’t see anyone stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring and playmaking abilities. Lu Dort is one of the reasons why, defensively, the Mavericks are going to have their hands full , and so I do suspect that Luka will have bounce-back games , but Lu Dort is going to make it so that it’s very difficult for him, and also really dare the rest of the Mavericks teammates to elevate .”

Dončić should ‘at least be average’.

After the Slovenian’s poor performance in game one, Medina emphasizes that if he does not improve his performance during the series, Dallas will have little chance of upsetting Oklahoma City, despite their enhanced squad depth compared to previous seasons.

“What we’ve seen in the Clippers playoff series is that this squad is very different from previous years, when it was just the Luka show, with PJ Washington in particular.

However, if Luka performs poorly, they will lose, therefore he must at least be average. But even if he is average, the Thunder just have way too much depth that it’s not going to matter.

The best case scenario for the Mavs is they can push it to six games, but barring any major injuries to the T hunder, I don’t see them losing to the Mavericks. ”

Dončić’s Post-Season Struggles

First career post-season in which he is averaging below 30 PPG (28.3 PPG)

Dončić is a prolific NBA scorer who consistently performs well in post-season play.

Having a season in which he averaged the second-most points in the league, 33.9, at 49/38/79 shooting splits, as well as grabbing 9.2 rebounds and dishing out 9.8 assists, it was unsurprising that he was one of the strongest contenders for the coveted MVP award.

What has surprised more is his lower level of output in the postseason, with his knee ailment appearing to hinder his ability to play in the way he is accustomed to.

Luka Dončić Stats – Individual Playoff Runs

Category

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2023-24

PPG

31.0

35.7

31.7

28.3

RPG

9.8

7.9

9.8

8.4

APG

8.7

10.3

6.4

9.4

SPG

1.2

1.3

1.8

1.1

FG%

50.0

49.0

45.5

39.5

3P%

36.4

40.8

34.5

22.7

As a result, he is currently in the midst of his worst post-season run in terms of individual production, shooting less than 40.0 percent from the field for the first time in his career – regular season and post-season – and a lowly 22.7 percent from distance, by far the worst efficiency he has shot from three in his career.

Despite Dončić’s slump, the Mavericks have a stronger supporting cast this season, with Irving and P.J. Washington stepping up during the playoffs.

However, if his performance does not improve throughout the Thunder series, Dallas’ aspirations of remaining competitive, let alone winning, may be dashed.

GIVEMESPORT Key Statistic: Luka Dončić and LeBron James (2006) are the only NBA players to average 30/7/6 on a 50-win club without winning MVP.

Irving, in particular, has frequently shown to be the difference maker, as evidenced by his 40-point effort on 14-for-25 shooting, which, despite the fact that the game ended in a loss, appeared to shift the tide in the Mavericks’ favor moving forward in their series with the Clippers.

Despite Dončić’s recent return to form, the Thunder remain a formidable opponent and appear to be legitimate title contenders, playing past their years.

As a result, the Mavericks face a daunting uphill fight, but they will not give up until the final buzzer sounds.